习近平会被【军事政变】推翻吗？｜政治学模型与路径推演

当接班机制崩溃、合法性单一、精英排他，政权就会进入高风险区间。本期节目，我们不鼓吹，不煽动，基于政治科学的逻辑体系，用理论建立可能性的边界，讨论：中共有没有可能发生政变？习近平会不会被军方推翻呢？

#习近平 #张又侠 #军事政变 #何卫东 #苗华 #政变 #许其亮 #王沪宁

00:00 引子
01:44 共军结构简析：“党指挥枪”的根制度
05:22 结构性裂缝：忠诚清洗与军内不安
08:22 政变模型构建：从宫廷政变到危机接管
16:31 尽头：不是政变，是无法转身的体制

VIDEO FOOTAGE CREDIT:
Source: YouTube: Ultime notizie dalla Persia (da un nostro inviato speciale). – View/save archived versions on archive.org and archive.today, Author Istituto Luce

Source: YouTube: Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, State Counsellor of the Republic of Myanmar called on President Mukherjee – View/save archived versions on archive.org and archive.today Author President of India

Speech of Philippine President Marcos During The Termination of Martial Law, January 17, 1981
Maharlika Broadcasting System, now called People's Television Network

1986 Inaugural of Corazon Cojuangco Cory Aquino, 11th President of the Republic of the Philippines - February 25
Source: Government Television (GTV), later reorganized as Radio Television Malacañang Author Radio Television Malacañang

Source YouTube: President Reagan Meeting with Mikhail Gorbachev at the Geneva Summit on November 20, 1985 – View/save archived versions on archive.org and archive.today Author Reagan Library

China President Xi Jinping met with Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. - 17 November 2023
Philippine Government - Radio Television Malacañang